Real estate giants’ top performers – Ever, also failed to hold up, continuous blood transfusions for Sunshine Steel, ultimately couldn’t plug the ever-growing hole. Linkage news: Six major banks completely halt sales of 5-year large savings bonds for five years.

Analyze China’s real estate defaults, compile timelines and key events, Evergrande, Greentown, Vanke, and other unlisted property developers I may not know about.

This overview is based on the latest perspective as of December 2025, covering the complete timeline from the initial crisis to the current period (end of 2025).

Currently, the landscape of China’s real estate industry can be summarized as: “Evergrande has liquidated, Hengda has just recovered, Greentown is still struggling, and Vanke is a golden body.”

Triggering Crisis: The Three Red Lines (2020)

The starting point was the regulatory authorities setting hard-line targets to curb real estate developers’ unrestrained expansion.

• Time: August 2020
• Policy: “Three Red Lines” (asset-liability ratio exceeding 70% after excluding prepaid receipts, net debt ratio exceeding 100%, and short-term cash ratio less than 1)
• Consequences: Real estate developers could no longer use “borrowing and repaying” to snowball their debts, and the financial chain tightened instantly, leading to a domino effect of high-leverage real estate companies collapsing.

The Current Status and Timeline of the Big Three

Evergrande – The Catalyst of the Crisis

• Current Status: Ordered into liquidation by the court. Xi Jinping has been subject to coercive measures, and the group has disintegrated.
• Key Time Points:
  • December 2021: First formal default (unable to pay interest on dollar debt), designated as “restricted default” by rating agencies. This is a landmark event marking the beginning of China’s real estate crisis.
  • September 2023: Xi Jinping was taken into coercive measures for alleged illegal crimes.
  • January 2024: The High Court in Hong Kong formally issued a winding-up order, Evergrande’s overseas restructuring failed, and it entered liquidation proceedings.

Country Garden (“The Outstanding Student”) – The Fall

• Current Situation: Debt restructuring in progress. As once the “No. 1 private real estate enterprise in the universe,” its defaults completely shattered the last confidence of the market in privately owned property companies.
• Key Milestones:
  • August 2023: Acknowledged liquidity pressure and failed to pay interest on two dollar-denominated debt installments.
  • October 2023: Officially declared default (unable to pay a $470 million Hong Kong dollar installment) and hired advisors to initiate offshore debt restructuring.
  • 2024-2025: Continued difficult debt restructuring negotiations and asset sales for self-rescue (such as Wanda Plaza equity, Australian projects, etc.).

Vanke – The Last Bastion (Latest Updates as of End of 2025)

• Current Status: Breaking the “Rigidity”. Vanke had held up remarkably well for a long time, but by the end of 2025 it began seeking debt extensions, marking that mixed ownership/state-backed property giants couldn’t escape their fate either.
• Key Time Points:
  • First Half of 2024: Faced short selling and credit rating downgrades, but thanks to verbal support from the Shenzhen Municipal Government and a syndicate loan (led by China Merchants Bank with a 20 billion yuan loan) it managed to pass through on time, repaying all publicly disclosed debt.
  • November 2025: First Proposal of Debt Extension. Vanke proposed extending payment for a soon-to-expire private placement debt financing tool (PPI), marking its first “technical default” or extension signal in public market debt, causing widespread shock in the market.

Other Notable Real Estate Giants with Defaulted/Breached Projects (Chronological Order)

In addition to the three you mentioned, numerous billion-dollar real estate companies have been involved. Here’s a list organized by “Default/Breach” time order:

Wave One: Early Meltdowns (2021)

• China Fortune Land: Defaulted in early 2021, one of the earliest large property developers to collapse after the Three Red Lines policy. Currently has completed most of its debt restructuring.
• Bluewray: Defaulted mid-2021, Sichuan’s “property tycoon,” delisted.
• Fantasia: Defaulted in October 2021. Its default was extremely sudden and triggered extreme panic among the market regarding property developers’ “off-balance sheet debt.”
• Kaisa: Secondary default in December 2021 (had defaulted in 2015). “The Old Renovation King” wasn’t spared either.
• Sunshine City: Began defaulting at the end of 2021, a Fortune 500 company, rapidly collapsed.

Wave Two: Widespread Contagion (2022)

• Sunac:
  • May 2022: Defaulted formally.
  • Status (2025): Offshore. Completed foreign debt restructuring in late 2023 and the restructuring plan officially took effect at the end of 2025. Sun Hongbin is one of the few bosses who successfully completed domestic and overseas debt restructuring, despite the company’s significant shrinkage in size, it preserved its operating entity.
• Shimao Group: Defaulted in July 2022. Once known as the “Master of Luxury Homes,” it owned numerous landmark buildings (such as the Foshan Hotel) and is currently still struggling with debt.
• CIFI Holding: Defaulted in October 2022. Formerly a “demonstration project” for private real estate companies, its collapse marked the complete annihilation of private property developers.
• R&F Properties: One of the “Five Tigers of South China,” it underwent debt extension (although not formally termed as default) as early as 2022, and is currently selling overseas assets (such as London projects) to repay debts.

Wave Three: State-Owned/Mixed Ownership Model Under Pressure (2023-2025)

• Sino-Ocean Group: Defaulted in 2023. This was the first state-owned property developer (backed by Ping An Insurance – a major shareholder) to default, shattering the “state-owned enterprise faith.”
• Agile Property: Initially defaulted in the public market in May 2024 after a long period of not defaulting. Ultimately, it failed to hold on.

Summary: Real Estate Developer Survival Status Classification

To help you remember more clearly, we can categorize them into four classes:

1. “Dead”/Liquidation:

   • Evergrande (Liquidation), Logan Property (Delisted), Sunshine City (Delisted).

2. Currently “ICU” Restructuring:

   • Greenspun (In restructuring negotiations), SAMSING, Xinhai Group, Far East Land Development.

3. Restructuring Complete/Temporarily Stabilized (Moving to Ordinary Wards):

   • Rongcloud (Sun Hongbin self-rescue successful), China Wealth Securities.

4. Still Struggling/Just Showing Crisis:

   • Vanke (Just extending the term), Longhu, Jiuhua Group, Gold Land.

Related News: Regarding Vanke’s situation, I chatted with colleagues and friends in the group, and the conclusion was that interest rate cuts would continue. Shortly after, news flooded in about [Six Major Banks Fully Halt Sales of 5-Year Large Savings Bonds]. When reporters logged into the official apps and mobile banking platforms of the six major banks, they found that the maturity structure of large savings bonds had clearly become “short-term.” ICBC’s “Large Savings Bond” section only remained with products for terms of 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, and 3 years. Of these, the 3-year large savings bond product has a rate of 1.55%, and the 1-year and 2-year products have a rate of 1.20%. In addition, China Bank, Construction Bank, Bank of Communications, and Postal Savings Bank had similar product matrices, with all 5-year products removed from the sales list. In Agricultural Bank’s RMB personal large savings bond products from 2018 to 2025, there was no trace of a 5-year large savings bond product. (China Finance News)