The fluctuations in the Renminbi exchange rate and the decline in the A-share market may be related to the dynamics of global central banks, the unexpected interest rate cut by the Swiss Central Bank, the performance of U.S. economic data, and adjustments in market expectations regarding inflation and interest rate cuts. These factors jointly acted on the foreign exchange market and stock market, leading to fluctuations in the Renminbi and the decline in the A-share market.
Based on the provided link content, on March 22, 2024, the Renminbi experienced significant volatility. Here’s a detailed breakdown:
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Dollar/Offshore RMB Exchange Rate Breaks Through: At opening, the Renminbi weakened, with the dollar-offshore RMB rising to a high of 7.24926 and the on-shore RMB rising to a high of 7.22360, both breaking new highs since November 17, 2023. As of the time of release by Lianhe Chat, the dollar-offshore RMB broke through the 7.26 mark, with the lowest reported at 7.2639 and the trend remained unchanged.
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Central Bank Mid-Exchange Rate Adjustment: On March 22nd, the central bank announced the Renminbi’s midpoint exchange rate against the dollar at 7.1004, a devaluation of 62 basis points, with the adjustment magnitude expanded.
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A-Share Market Reaction: Affected by various factors, the three major A-share indices opened low and continued to fall, with declines exceeding 1% overall.
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Reasons for Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market: A senior foreign exchange trader from a Hong Kong investment institution stated that the volatility in the foreign exchange market was mainly due to the unexpected interest rate cut by the Swiss Central Bank boosting the dollar, coupled with strong U.S. economic data and the potential persistence of inflation delaying interest rate cuts, leading to an increase in the Dollar Index.
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Global Central Bank Dynamics: This week is the “Super Central Bank Week” for global markets, with the central banks of the United States, Japan, Britain, Australia, and other countries all announcing interest rate decisions this week. The Swiss Central Bank unexpectedly announced a cut in interest rates, becoming the first G10 currency central bank to cut rates since the outbreak of the pandemic, which broke the market balance.
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Forecast for Renminbi Trend: Zhou Miaohua, researcher at Light Industry Bank’s Financial Market Department, stated that despite some fluctuations in the Renminbi recently, the overall magnitude is significantly smaller than that of major currencies such as the dollar, and short-term volatility will not change the RMB’s trend of steady appreciation throughout the year.