The evolution of tariffs in the 2025 trade war presented a cycle of “escalation — retaliation — consultation,” as the US-China competition shifted from tariff confrontation to rules-based competition. While short-term easing alleviated market pressure, long-term uncertainty remains, and it is necessary to monitor the continued impact on the global economy from WTO rulings, supply chain adjustments, and geopolitical changes.

People can’t earn money beyond their own understanding. The stock market crash triggered by the trade war this year, even now that losses have been largely recovered, has buried countless small investors along the way.

Analysis of the timeline for tariffs in trade wars in 2025

Here’s a breakdown of the 2025 trade war tariff timeline, incorporating key events from China, the US, and other countries to illustrate the evolving dynamics of tariff policies

I. April 2025: Comprehensive Tariff Escalation and Retaliation

1. US tariffs on China

   • On April 2, the Trump administration signed Executive Order 14257, announcing a 34% tariff on goods imported from China, covering products from Hong Kong and Macau
   • On April 8th, the United States further increased tariffs on Chinese goods from 34% to 84% and signed Executive Orders 14259 and 14266, imposing additional tariffs on more products
   • On April 10th: The White House revised an executive order, raising the total tariffs on China to 145%, and increasing tariffs on small packages (such as raising the tax rate on goods under $800 from 90% to 120%)

2. China’s countermeasures

   • On April 4th, China announced tariffs of 34% on all goods originating from the United States, covering areas such as agricultural products, automobiles, and energy
   • On April 10th, China will raise retaliatory tariffs from 34% to 84%, matching the escalation by the US side
   • On April 12th: China canceled 91% of the tariffs imposed on US goods (corresponding to the portion cancelled by the US side) and suspended the implementation of the remaining 24% tariffs for 90 days, retaining 10%

3. Tariff disputes among other countries

   • US-Canada trade war: The United States has imposed a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum products from Canada. Canada retaliated by imposing tariffs on US$298 billion worth of American goods and filed a complaint with the WTO.
   • The EU is imposing tariffs of up to 25% on US goods, while Japan has expressed concerns about tariffs on US automobiles, calling the trade war “harmful to both sides.”

II. May 2025: Geneva Talks and Tariff Easing

1. China-U.S. High-Level Economic and Trade Talks

   • From May 10th to 11th, China and the United States held 16 hours of talks in Geneva, Switzerland, reaching the “China-US Geneva Trade Talks Joint Statement.”
   • May 12th: Both sides announced suspension of some tariffs
     • The United States has suspended 24% of tariffs on China (for 90 days), retained 10%, and canceled additional taxes scheduled for April 8th and 9th
     • China will suspend 24% of retaliatory tariffs, retain 10%, and remove non-tariff measures
   • Both sides agreed to establish a consultation mechanism and regularly hold trade consultations in China, the United States, or a third country, focusing on tariff reduction and rule-making

2. Economic Impact and Policy Adjustments

   • US domestic pressure: High tariffs are causing small and medium-sized enterprises to go out of business (such as Amazon sellers being forced to close due to soaring tariffs), and inflation expectations are heating up (core PCE is expected to rise to 3.3%)
   • China’s rare earth countermeasures: China has tightened controls on rare earth exports, cracked down on smuggling, and impacted the US military industry and new energy supply chain, forcing them to seek waivers for tariffs on rare earths and other key minerals

III. Other Key Events and Long-Term Impacts

1. The WTO and multilateral response

   • Canada and China have separately filed appeals with the WTO over US steel and aluminum tariffs and “reciprocal tariffs,” alleging violations of the non-discrimination principle
   • WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala warned that US tariffs could cause a 1% contraction in global trade volume in 2025 and exacerbate the difficulties faced by developing countries

2. Exemption List and Industry Impact

   • US exemption goods: A 37-page list covering strategic materials such as rare earths, graphite, and medical CT tubes exposes supply chain vulnerabilities
   • US tariffs on imported cars of 25% have led to a global forecast of a 2% decline in auto production, with a 9% reduction in North America

3. Political and strategic game

   • The Trump administration attempted to reshape the international trade order through “reciprocal tariffs,” but was criticized as unilateral bullying, triggering a backlash from allies (such as the EU and Japan)
   • China is responding to protectionism by expanding market access (such as the China International Import Expo, and zero-tariff commitments) and attracting cooperation from developing countries

Summary of Timeline

Five: Trends and Challenges

• Short-term easing and long-term competition: The suspension of tariffs between China and the US sends a positive signal, but structural contradictions (such as high technology and energy) remain, and midterm elections may affect policy continuity
• Global supply chain restructuring: Companies are accelerating adjustments to their supply chains, with Mexico and Southeast Asia benefiting from “nearshoring,” but rising costs may dampen the recovery
• The predicament of multilateral mechanisms: The WTO dispute settlement mechanism is constrained, regional trade agreements (such as the UK-US agreement) have become alternative options, but this exacerbates fragmentation