Investment

When the A-share semiconductor and AI hardware chains surge rapidly, two extreme reactions tend to emerge: one type of person feels that missing out on gains (FOMO) is more painful than actually incurring losses, while another believes that excessive rises necessarily signal a bubble.

Both of these are too fast. In areas like semiconductors, computing power, optical modules, and storage, the industrial logic might be true. AI training and inference will indeed boost hardware demand, and domestic substitution has certainly provided narrative space and order opportunities for local companies. The problem is that just because the industrial logic holds true does not mean that the probability of investing in it now is good.

Similar market trends have occurred repeatedly in history: the liquor sector (Baijiu), new energy, pharmaceuticals, core asset grouping, and TMT. Each time, there was real logic behind it. When these sectors decline, it doesn’t necessarily mean the logic has disappeared; rather, the timing/rhythm between valuation, positioning, earnings realization, and liquidity was off.

The most unusual aspect of this current AI market cycle is not that Nvidia has risen sharply, but that the increase in value has been transmitted throughout the entire industrial chain: first GPUs, then servers, switches, ASICs, HBM, and finally to NAND, hard drives, power, and data centers.

If it were just a concept, the market trend shouldn’t last this long. But saying that it has already formed a complete profit cycle might be premature.

I prefer to view it as a “bull market driven by certain expenditures”: cloud vendors and model companies are genuinely spending money, and upstream companies are indeed collecting revenue, which is why stocks rose first; however, terminal applications have not yet proven that these investments can reliably generate enough profit, meaning the risk of a bubble also exists.

Wuliangye’s performance fluctuation this time was not merely an ordinary dip; it directly disrupted the long-held unspoken norms within the baijiu industry. According to its 2025 annual report, the company reported full-year revenue of 40.529 billion yuan and net profit attributable to owners of 8.954 billion yuan. What is even more striking is that the company also conducted prior accounting error corrections for the first quarter, half year, and third quarter of 2025. Simply put, many figures from 2025 that initially looked impressive were later recalculated.

My judgment on this matter is straightforward: It’s not simply an “earnings crash,” but rather Wuliangye telling the market that their past approach of relying on channel pressure and reporting through future reserves can no longer be sustained.

I bought 006327 today on Alipay. I thought I would place the order before 3 PM, but what I received was based on “today’s Hang Seng Tech closing price.” The profit displayed on the page didn’t update for ages, and confirming the shares was also delayed. My first reaction was sheer shock: how is this thing actually settled/transacted? And why do I have to wait another two days?

To be honest, this misunderstanding is extremely common. Alipay has made buying and selling over-the-counter (OTC) funds look too much like placing stock orders, but fundamentally, there are two pitfalls in this matter. First, 006327 is absolutely not the Hang Seng Tech Index Fund. Second, when you buy a fund through OTC channels, the price you get is not based on an index’s real-time closing point, but rather the Net Asset Value (NAV) calculated by the fund company for that specific day. Furthermore, coupled with the

Worrying Mindset: Holding onto stocks persistently, observing calmly like a Buddhist, and paying attention to the fulfillment of “ecosystem premium.”

I. Market Overview: From 2025’s “Mania” to 2026’s “Consolidation”

2025 was a strong year for the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 23.45% throughout the year – its best performance since inception. However, as we entered January 2026, the market transitioned into a clear pattern of “two upward trends and one pullback.”

• Analysis of NVIDIA’s “Play” Worth a Billion Investment The global capital market is witnessing an unprecedented wave of centralization in 2025, centered around artificial intelligence (AI). This narrative not only reshapes the tech industry’s landscape but also exacerbates wealth inequality on Wall Street. The former “Magnificent Seven” no longer adequately describes today’s dynamics; the market is now dominated by a handful of super winners.

This article will delve into three key questions:

Monday saw no panic sell-off, but the entire week was marked by a persistent downtrend, like a dull knife slicing flesh – a slow, gradual decline over the course of seven days.

Disciplined Trading

Yesterday afternoon, two new short positions on Xiaomi were added, with the original plan to sell out at the end. However, when I saw a slight loss in the final position, I hesitated and didn’t want to cut my losses, so I decided to observe for another day. This morning, the stock price fell slightly by 1%, and when it dropped to 2% in the afternoon, I decisively exited the position. Later, it was proven that this exit was correct, as the stock continued to fall after that.

In the turbulent and unpredictable stock market, we often use faith and expectations as our compass, attempting to navigate through the fog and reach the shores of wealth. However, when our voyage deviates from the guidance of the compass, it’s easy to lose direction, even to run aground. This essay is about one such journey, beginning with an unwavering obsession with Xiaomi, which rose and fell repeatedly amidst the waves of capital.