Financial Statements

In the previous article The end point of this semiconductor cycle is probably not in 2026, I presented my conclusion first, but deliberately did not dive too deep into the specific details of the financial reports.

What we are covering this time is the part that is most easily obscured by market sentiment: When semiconductors rise, everyone knows they are profitable; but what truly determines whether a cycle can be extended or which company can capitalize on high growth more thoroughly is often not the stock price, but rather the profit and loss statement, capital expenditure, and product investment direction during the trough.

If I must make a more specific judgment, as of May 13, 2026, I still do not pinpoint 2026 as the end of this upcycle. However, if I have to pick just one major player among the giants that is most worth watching, it would be SK hynix. Not because it hasn’t gone through a downturn—quite the opposite—but because it made the most representative strategic choices when things looked their worst in 2023.

Wuliangye’s performance fluctuation this time was not merely an ordinary dip; it directly disrupted the long-held unspoken norms within the baijiu industry. According to its 2025 annual report, the company reported full-year revenue of 40.529 billion yuan and net profit attributable to owners of 8.954 billion yuan. What is even more striking is that the company also conducted prior accounting error corrections for the first quarter, half year, and third quarter of 2025. Simply put, many figures from 2025 that initially looked impressive were later recalculated.

My judgment on this matter is straightforward: It’s not simply an “earnings crash,” but rather Wuliangye telling the market that their past approach of relying on channel pressure and reporting through future reserves can no longer be sustained.

Recently, Xiaomi’s third-quarter financial report was released, with little expectation beyond the usual. The US situation is unsettled, Hong Kong stocks have recently experienced liquidity stagnation, and the Hang Seng Technology Index has retreated significantly.

As a major participant in the food delivery war, Alibaba, which bears the highest e-commerce taxes, hasn’t generated much discussion online.

I don’t remember if I wrote any previous articles, when I bought Xiaomi, I didn’t really think about what supported Xiaomi’s market capitalization at that time – perhaps after watching too many TikTok-related videos?