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U.S. Stock Market

After an AI stock pullback, first look at how the crowded trades unravel/dissipate.

Looking back at this on Beijing Time June 9, 2026—the line from June 5 is no longer sufficient. On June 8, the A-share market failed to digest last Friday’s retracement of tech stocks; instead, the ChiNext board, STAR 50, CPO, and semiconductors continued to decline sharply. Simultaneously, US stocks also saw intraday pullbacks on June 8, with QQQ, SOXX, and a group of AI chip stocks exhibiting obvious rebounds. When looking at both markets together, the conclusion is even less straightforward: A-shares are continuing to dismantle crowded trades, while US stocks are performing high-elasticity rallies intraday. Neither of these events serves as concrete evidence that “clearing has been completed.”

Why didn't the Hang Seng Tech index hit new highs alongside A-shares?

Bottom line first.

As of May 20, 2026, the strength of A-shares and the weakness of Hang Seng Tech are not due to one asset pool having lagging components; rather, it is a divergence between two sets of pricing logics. On May 20, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4162.19 points, still fluctuating near 4200; meanwhile, on its most recently available closing date of May 19, 2026, the Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 4857.46 points, which is still short of the phase historical high point of 10945.22 recorded on February 17, 2021, by 55.6%.

If your statement that the “CSI 300 ETF has matched its historical peak” refers to the most common 510300, the closing price I captured on 2026-05-20 was 4.871. This still represents about a 16.1% drawdown from the 5.807 recorded on 2021-02-10, and has not reached an all-time high. It is highly likely that various calculation bases were mixed here: Price, Net Asset Value (NAV), Adjusted NAV, Total Return Index. They look like they are the same thing, but they actually are not.

Allow me to correct a name. The “China Golden Dragon Fish Index” you mentioned usually refers to the Nasdaq Gold Dragon China Index, whose English name is Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index, not “Golden Dragon Fish.”

The endpoint of this semiconductor cycle is unlikely to be in 2026.

Regarding this round of semiconductor trends, I temporarily do not see a peak in 2026.

If forced to give an initial judgment, as of May 12, 2026, I am more inclined to place the truly critical period between the second half of 2027 and the first half of 2028, rather than now. The core driver of this current uptrend—particularly in US listed storage and Korean semiconductors—is not a general recovery, but rather AI pulling HBM, DDR5, and enterprise SSD up simultaneously. If supply expansion fails, both prices and profits will rise together.

This also explains why companies like Micron, SK hynix, and Samsung seem to be “printing money” lately. The semiconductor cycle hasn’t vanished, but this time it is unlikely to collapse when demand first kicks in; rather, it is more likely to crash when capacity expansion finally catches up, and the market has already front-loaded two or three years’ worth of profit.

After AI stocks skyrocketed

The most unusual aspect of this current AI market cycle is not that Nvidia has risen sharply, but that the increase in value has been transmitted throughout the entire industrial chain: first GPUs, then servers, switches, ASICs, HBM, and finally to NAND, hard drives, power, and data centers.

If it were just a concept, the market trend shouldn’t last this long. But saying that it has already formed a complete profit cycle might be premature.

I prefer to view it as a “bull market driven by certain expenditures”: cloud vendors and model companies are genuinely spending money, and upstream companies are indeed collecting revenue, which is why stocks rose first; however, terminal applications have not yet proven that these investments can reliably generate enough profit, meaning the risk of a bubble also exists.

Cloudflare experienced a global network outage, causing websites like X (formerly Twitter) and ChatGPT to crash. The stock price suffered a setback ahead of the market open.

This site’s main domain is hosted on GitHub Pages, and the blog’s backup subdomain is on Vercel with acceleration. It has been deployed through Cloudflare. The backend management page looks too outdated and unappealing, which is a major deterrent. Initially, it was a quiet, unassuming piece of content; however, constant messages in the blogging circles disrupted this tranquility – opening it up, CF went down, and many friends’ websites couldn’t be accessed.

As an internet infrastructure component, such prolonged downtime is unacceptable. The stock price didn’t plummet dramatically, which I hadn’t anticipated.

Big Tech Dominance in the U.S. Stock Market Intensifies: The Top 10 Companies Account for 40% of Market Capitalization, Is AI a Bubble or a Revolution?

  • Analysis of NVIDIA’s “Play” Worth a Billion Investment The global capital market is witnessing an unprecedented wave of centralization in 2025, centered around artificial intelligence (AI). This narrative not only reshapes the tech industry’s landscape but also exacerbates wealth inequality on Wall Street. The former “Magnificent Seven” no longer adequately describes today’s dynamics; the market is now dominated by a handful of super winners.

This article will delve into three key questions:

Black Swan Goose Returns

Previously, investors focused on financial news. Since Trump’s return, they also needed to pay attention to his Twitter (a private version). The trade war continued to escalate, leading to a sharp decline on April 7th, which was quickly followed by a rebound. This time, though, are people still willing to jump in?

Background Review

On April 7, 2025, following the impact of the U.S. implementation of an “equivalency tariff” policy, global stock markets experienced a “Black Monday.” The A-share market plunged, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 7.34% and the Shenzhen Component Index plummeting by 12.5%, with over 4,300 stocks declining by more than 9%. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong also fell by 13.22%, along with European and U.S. stock indices exceeding declines of 4%. China subsequently stabilized the market through state-owned enterprise (SOE) purchases and intervention by Huishang Securities.