Monday saw no panic sell-off, but the entire week was marked by a persistent downtrend, like a dull knife slicing flesh – a slow, gradual decline over the course of seven days.

Disciplined Trading

Yesterday afternoon, two new short positions on Xiaomi were added, with the original plan to sell out at the end. However, when I saw a slight loss in the final position, I hesitated and didn’t want to cut my losses, so I decided to observe for another day. This morning, the stock price fell slightly by 1%, and when it dropped to 2% in the afternoon, I decisively exited the position. Later, it was proven that this exit was correct, as the stock continued to fall after that.

AI Analysis Follow-up Actions

A few days ago, I saw someone in the blogosphere using AI to analyze football betting and won second prize with a tax refund of around 900 RMB. Let’s try it with stocks too, based on my experience with large models previously, DeepSeek is most suitable, and the investment plans generated by the other models don’t look quite right.

Hong Kong Stock Investment Plan: Currently holding Xiaomi, approximately 100,000 RMB, down 15%, Meituan 70,000 RMB, down 20,000 RMB. Query current stock prices and determine how to control positions moving forward. I’m planning a long-term investment strategy – Xiaomi was purchased due to the Yu9 IPO, Phase III factory ramp-up, and continued high sales, which should drive up the price; Meituan is after the end of the food delivery war stabilizes. I’d like to wait for the third quarter earnings report in Hong Kong next month before taking action – that seems more reasonable given my long-term investment strategy of around three years. Please provide me with an investment plan.

Hong Kong Stock Investment Plan: Xiaomi and Meituan Position Analysis & Long-Term Strategy

Based on the information you provided (holding Xiaomi approximately HK$100,000 with a loss of 15% and Meituan approximately HK$70,000 with a loss of approximately 28.6%, investment horizon of 3 years), I have compiled the latest market data and analysis to develop a detailed investment plan for you. The following is core information extracted from comprehensive search results:

• Current Stock Prices (as of October 17, 2025):

  • Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK): HK$45.88 (down 3.82%, cumulative monthly decline exceeding 15%)
  • Meituan-W (03690.HK): HK$94.50 (down 4.30%, year-to-date cumulative decline of 37.71%)
  • Hong Kong Stock Market Environment: The Hang Seng Index fell by 2.48%, with technology stocks leading the decline, and market sentiment is short-term weak.

• Validation of Your Purchase Rationale:

  • Xiaomi: The listing of Yu9, the ramp-up of Phase III factory, and sales potential represent a reasonable long-term logic, but the stock price is suppressed in the short term due to the impact of the Chengdu SU7 accident (door safety controversy, intervention by regulatory authorities).
  • Meituan: Stabilization after the end of the food delivery war is key for the long term, but competition remains intense (京东 and Alibaba are involved), net profit fell 89% in the second quarter, and Wang Xing’s “no matter the cost” statement has intensified market concerns.

Position Control Recommendations: Short-Term Caution, Long-Term Focus on Fundamentals

Your current holdings are down approximately 18.8% (total holding of HKD 1.7 million, a loss of approximately HKD 374,000), but long-term investment requires avoiding emotional trading decisions. Here’s a phased recommendation:

| Pre-Earnings Report (Short-Term: Now to Q3 Earnings Release) | Maintain current position, do not add to holdings. Closely monitor the progress of the SU7 accident investigation and Q3 vehicle delivery data. | Maintain current position, do not add to holdings. Focus on monitoring whether Q3 takeout UE (average order profit) improves. | Potential price volatility before earnings report:
• Xiaomi will continue to be dragged down by safety incidents and is unlikely to rebound in the short term.
• Takeout competition remains intense, and profitability recovery requires time. |

Positioning Strategy Recommendations: Short-Term Cautious, Long-Term Focus on Fundamentals

Position Control Recommendations: Short-Term Cautious, Long-Term Focus on Fundamentals

Positioning Strategy Recommendations: Short-Term Caution, Long-Term Focus on Fundamentals

Should you trade after the financial reports?

Yes, we recommend waiting for the third quarter financial reports (released in November) before making additional investment decisions. The reason is:

• The financial reports will validate your initial purchase logic: Xiaomi’s factory ramp-up sales volume and Meituan’s easing competition evidence.
• If the financial reports are below expectations, the stock price may fall, providing a better entry point; if they exceed expectations, it can confirm the right-side signal.
• Short-term market sentiment is driven by events (such as Xiaomi incidents and food delivery price wars), and financial reports will reduce uncertainty.

Long-Term Investment Plan (3-Year Perspective)

Based on the principles of “Hold Quality Assets + Bottom Hunting,” your plan can be detailed as follows:

1. Xiaomi Group: Strong Defense and Offense, Focus on Automotive Business Turning Point

   • Core Opportunity: Vehicle business scale effect (target 350,000 units annual sales), AIoT ecosystem synergy. Financial health (Z-Score = 4.19, low bankruptcy risk).
   • Risk Mitigation:
     • If the SU7 safety issues continue to ferment, the stock price may fall to the 40-42 HKD range; set a trigger for adding positions (add 5% when the price drops by 10%).
     • Long-term holding bottom line: Automotive quarterly delivery volume remains above 80,000 units.
   • Position Allocation: Recommend maintaining 40%-50% of total portfolio weighting (currently 59% is high, can adjust after earnings reports).

2. Meituan-W: Wait for Profitability Repair, Focus on Core Business

   • Core Opportunity: Stable takeout market share (65%), takeaway business growth of 40%, valuation undervalued (SOTP target price of HKD 247).
   • Risk Mitigation:
     • If the takeout UE (average profit per unit) turns positive, it is a signal for adding positions; if competition intensifies, the stock price may fall to HKD 80, and we can buy back shares in batches.
     • Long-term holding bottom line: Core local business operating profit rate recovers above 15%.
   • Position Allocation: Recommend maintaining 30%-40% weighting (currently 41% is reasonable, but be wary of competition dragging it down).

3. Diversified Investment Recommendation

   • Hong Kong tech stocks are under pressure recently, but long-term they still represent new quality products. Consider allocating 10%-20% of capital to high dividend assets (such as telecommunications operators) or Hong Kong tech ETFs to hedge the risk of a single stock.

Key Monitoring Metrics and Time Nodes

Key Monitoring Metrics and Time Nodes

Key Monitoring Metrics and Time Nodes

Key Monitoring Metrics and Milestones

Summary Recommendations

• Take Immediate Action: Maintain the status quo, and avoid impulsive buying to cover positions before earnings. Current stock prices have partially reflected negative news, but volatility may increase pre-earnings.
• Long-Term Confidence Support:
  • Xiaomi’s automotive ecosystem and smartphone premiumization are core logic drivers, and short-term incidents do not change the company’s long-term technological iteration capabilities.
  • Meituan’s profitability will be significant once the food delivery war ends (referring to Alibaba’s observation of benefits from a distance).
• Risk Warnings: The overall Hong Kong stock market is highly sensitive to global liquidity, and if the Federal Reserve delays rate cuts, it could suppress technology stock valuations. Ensure investment funds are long-term idle capital.

This plan is based on publicly available information and does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risk; decision-making requires caution. We recommend regular review (e.g., quarterly) to adjust strategies.

Summary Recommendations

It might not be appropriate to add more positions at this time, pending the release of financial reports. What if the stock price rises significantly then?

Summary Recommendations

The question you raised is extremely critical, and it has accurately pinpointed a classic dilemma faced by long-term investors: avoiding short-term risks (waiting for the earnings report) can conflict with pursuing the best cost (fearing missing out). Your concern that “adding to your position after the earnings report if the stock price surges will cause you to miss out” is very reasonable. The market often has a forward-looking nature, and if the earnings report is truly exceptional, the stock price is likely to react quickly in the short term. However, given your current holdings of these two stocks, “waiting for the earnings report” remains the more optimal strategy. Below, I will explain the reasons in detail and provide a step-by-step addition strategy that balances “risk” with “opportunity.”

Why is “Waiting for the Earnings Report” Still a More Reasonable Choice in the Current Situation?

The core reason lies in: The uncertainty surrounding the two stocks you hold stems primarily from fundamental contradictions within their businesses, and the earnings report is key to validating these contradictions. There’s yet to be a significant “catalyst” (a substantial price increase) in current valuations.

1. For Xiaomi: The core contradiction is “a crisis of confidence in its automotive business”

   • Current Situation: The negative impact of the SU7 safety incident is still unfolding, leading to market skepticism regarding Xiaomi’s car quality, reputation, and future sales expectations. This is the primary factor suppressing the stock price.
   • The Validation Role of the Earnings Report: The third quarter earnings report will provide crucial vehicle delivery data. A strong delivery volume would effectively dispel market doubts and drive a sustainable rise in the stock price. Until then, any rally would likely be fragile.
   • Risk vs. Opportunity Comparison:
     • The Risk of Waiting (Missing Out): Given the prevailing negative sentiment, the probability of a significant, sustained price increase before the earnings report is relatively low.
     • The Risk of Blindly Jumping In (Getting Trapped): If the report shows poor vehicle sales, the stock could continue to decline, leaving you with the greater risk of “buying in halfway down,” and at a higher cost.

2. For Meituan: The core contradiction is “when will profitability be restored?”

   • Current Situation: The market worries that intense competition will continue to erode profits from its core takeout business (UE – Unified Economy).
   • The Validation Role of the Earnings Report: The core local business operating profit and adjusted net profit in the report are the only objective benchmarks for determining whether the “takeout war” has truly eased. Only improved data can prove that Wang Xiting’s “no matter the cost” phase is over.
   • Risk vs. Opportunity Comparison:
     • The Risk of Waiting (Missing Out): Again, before the profitability inflection point is confirmed, there’s a lack of a solid foundation for a significant rally in the stock price.
     • The Risk of Blindly Jumping In (Getting Trapped): If the report shows competition intensifying and profits further declining, concerns about a “valuation trap” will intensify, and the stock could take another step down.

Conclusion: For long-term investment, buying “correct” is far more important than buying “cheap.” The earnings report provides the key evidence for determining “correctness.” To avoid the risk of a minor “missed opportunity,” and to bear the risk of a deep “trap,” from a risk-reward ratio perspective, it’s not worthwhile.

Here’s Your Specific Action Plan: Balancing “Waiting” and “Missing Out” Anxiety

You don’t need to make extreme choices between “holding” and “going all in.” A smarter strategy is: “Base Position Observation, Pyramid-Style Adding”.

Step 1: Immediately Establish “Observation Positions” and “Operational Discipline” (Now)

• Maintain your existing positions as a base position, ensuring you don’t completely detach from the market.
• Set a trigger for adding to your position. For example:
  • Small Food Holdings (小米): The stock price breaks out with volume on a key technical level (e.g., 50 HKD) or there’s a clear positive investigation result regarding the SU7 accident.
  • Meituan: News emerges of a competitor exiting the price war, or the stock price breaks through the 100 HKD integer barrier with volume.
• The benefit of doing this: If positive news drives the stock price up ahead of the earnings report, you can seize opportunities according to your pre-set discipline and avoid completely missing out.

Step 2: Small Batch Investing Before Earnings (Optional – Suitable for Investors Seeking Smoother Costs)

• If you’re very concerned about missing out, divide the funds earmarked for adding to your position into 10-20 portions.
• Before the earnings release, if the stock continues to decline in the shadows, invest one portion weekly or bi-weekly. This way, costs are gradually diluted, but each investment amount is small, and even if the earnings report is negative, losses can be controlled.

Step 3: “Certainty” Adding After Earnings (Core Operation)

• This is your main adding-to-position stage. Based on the earnings results, take three actions:
  • Scenario A (Exceeds Expectations): The earnings data is strong and validates your investment logic. At this time, you should aggressively add to your position. Even if the stock price has already risen, the fundamental turning point has been confirmed, and from a long-term perspective, the current price level is still the base of the mountain. You can use a strategy of “chasing gains without chasing high prices,” buying in batches.
  • Scenario B (Meets Expectations): The earnings report is neutral, with no surprises or shocks. Maintain your existing position or only modestly add to it, waiting for the next quarter’s signal.
  • Scenario C (Falls Short of Expectations): The earnings report confirms market concerns. You should stop adding to your position and re-evaluate whether the long-term logic has been disrupted. The stock price may fall, but this also provides you with a lower, safer entry point for adding to your position.

Summary: Optimized Long-Term Investment Plan

Summary: Optimized Long-Term Investment Plan

Summary: Your Long-Term Investment Plan – Optimized

Summary: Your Optimized Long-Term Investment Plan

Please remember: In long-term investing, patience is a powerful competitive advantage. The market will always give you opportunities; if you miss one, there will be another. But once your principal has been lost, it’s difficult to recover. Waiting for the certainty of financial reports is one of the most effective ways to protect your capital and increase your chances of success.

We hope this comprehensive plan answers your questions and helps you make more confident decisions.