- Analysis of NVIDIA’s “Play” Worth a Billion Investment The global capital market is witnessing an unprecedented wave of centralization in 2025, centered around artificial intelligence (AI). This narrative not only reshapes the tech industry’s landscape but also exacerbates wealth inequality on Wall Street. The former “Magnificent Seven” no longer adequately describes today’s dynamics; the market is now dominated by a handful of super winners.
This article will delve into three key questions:
- What proportion of the entire stock market do the top ten U.S. companies represent in terms of market capitalization?
- Does AI constitute a bubble? Is NVIDIA’s (NVIDIA) multi-billion dollar “reciprocal investment” with OpenAI justified?
- What are NVIDIA’s recent investment moves, and what is the underlying strategic logic behind them?
Write article: What proportion of the entire stock market do the top ten U.S. companies represent? Does AI constitute a bubble? Are NVIDIA’s investments and reciprocal investment with OpenAI justified? Compile NVIDIA’s recent investment actions and analyze their rationale.
Market Concentration: Top 10 Giants Dominate 40% of US Stock Market Capitalization
Based on the latest data from October to November 2025, the concentration in the US stock market (represented by the S&P 500 Index) has reached a remarkable level.
The top 10 US companies in the S&P 500 currently account for approximately 40% of the index’s total market capitalization.
This figure represents an even greater increase than the roughly 30% held by the “Big Seven” a year or two ago. As of early November 2025, the top 10 US companies were approximately:
- NVIDIA: Market Cap Approaching $5 Trillion
- Apple: Market Cap Approximately $4 Trillion
- Microsoft: Market Cap Approximately $3.85 Trillion
- Alphabet (Google): Market Cap Approximately $3.4 Trillion
- Amazon: Market Cap Approximately $2.6 Trillion
- Broadcom: Market Cap Approximately $1.75 Trillion
- Meta Platforms: Market Cap Approximately $1.63 Trillion
- Tesla: Market Cap Approximately $1.52 Trillion
- Berkshire Hathaway: Market Cap Approximately $1.03 Trillion
- JPMorgan Chase: Market Cap Approximately $0.85 Trillion
This high concentration means that the stock price performance of a few key companies can determine the entire market’s direction. And the core fuel driving this “super-concentration” is, without question – Artificial Intelligence.
AI Bubble and the $100 Billion “Closed Loop”: NVIDIA’s “Mutual Investment” with OpenAI
The “mutual investment” between NVIDIA and OpenAI, which you mentioned, became a global shock event by September 2025. This wasn’t traditional VC investment, but a strategic partnership valued at $100 billion, representing a significant shift in the AI landscape.
1. The “Closed Loop” Structure of the Partnership:
- NVIDIA Investment: NVIDIA announced it would invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI.
- OpenAI Procurement: OpenAI will utilize this funding (and other financing) to purchase NVIDIA’s chip systems, committing to deploy at least 10 ExaWatts (EW) of computing power – involving millions of GPUs – and adopting NVIDIA’s next-generation “Vera Rubin” platform starting in 2026.
2. Is This Model Reasonable?
This is a highly controversial topic, with market opinions divided between “revolution” and “bubble.”
Perspective 1: Reasonable - It’s the Inevitable Choice of the ‘AI Revolution’ (The Revolution Case)
- For OpenAI (the Buyer): The path to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) requires near-unlimited computing power. In today’s market, NVIDIA’s GPUs are the most powerful and have the most mature ecosystems – they are the “shovels.” Locking down supply of top-tier chips for several years is the only way to ensure its continued leadership in the AI arms race.
- For NVIDIA (the Seller): OpenAI is its largest and most important customer. By investing $100 billion and deeply binding itself with OpenAI, NVIDIA effectively secures a massive order for its next-generation platform (Vera Rubin), guaranteeing future revenue and absolute market dominance over several years.
Perspective 2: Unreasonable - It’s a Classic ‘AI Bubble’ Feature (The Bubble Case)
- “Closed Loop Financing”: Critics argue this is a “left hand, right hand” capital game. NVIDIA gives money to OpenAI, which then uses that money to order from NVIDIA. This creates massive revenue and growth on paper, but significantly amplifies valuations and bubbles.
- Significant Financial Risk: Reports indicate NVIDIA was even discussing providing OpenAI with loan guarantees to build data centers. This means if OpenAI’s business model fails in the future (e.g., AGI doesn’t materialize or operating costs are too high leading to bankruptcy), NVIDIA faces risks of tens of billions – or even hundreds of billions – in debt.
- Raises Antitrust Concerns: This transaction is viewed by regulators and competitors as “anti-competitive.” Analysts worry that, as a market “arms dealer,” NVIDIA will use its investment to deeply bind itself with the largest “mercenary” OpenAI, incentivizing it to refuse selling chips to OpenAI’s competitors (like Anthropic, Google, etc.), or offer worse terms, thereby stifling innovation.
Conclusion: This model is NVIDIA’s high-risk, high-reward strategic “play” to ensure its AI dominance. It’s both a catalyst for massive AI development and potentially the footnote on the largest bubble in history.
Nvidia’s Investment “Empire”: A Calculated Demand Creation
Nvidia has long been more than just a “chip vendor.” Through its venture capital arm (NVIDIA GPU Ventures), it is actively transforming into the “banker” and “ecosystem builder” for the entire AI gold rush.
📈 NVIDIA’s Recent Key Investment Actions
NVIDIA’s investment pace has accelerated dramatically in 2024-2025. As of October 2025, NVIDIA has invested in 59 AI startups this year, surpassing the 55 invested in throughout 2024.
Its investment portfolio covers almost every vertical within AI, with a focus on:
- OpenAI (Foundation Models): In September 2025, it reached a strategic investment and procurement agreement valued at $100 billion.
- Poolside (AI Programming): Revealed to lead an investment of up to $100 million, supporting the development of AI software engineers in October 2025.
- Nokia (6G/Telecoms): Announced a strategic partnership and invested $100 million jointly developing AI-RAN (Radio Access Network) to capture the 6G market.
- Figure AI (Humanoid Robots): Investing in this star robotics company, positioning itself for the future of “Embodied Intelligence.”
- Perplexity AI (AI Search): Investing in this OpenAI competitor, securing a foothold in the next-generation information gateway.
- Wayve (Autonomous Driving): Investing in the UK’s autonomous driving company to ensure its dominance in automotive chips.
🤔 Investment Logic Analysis: Why is it Reasonable?
Nvidia CEO Huang Renjun’s strategy is very clear. The core logic of its investments isn’t purely financial returns, but rather to serve its core chip business, which can be summarized into three key objectives:
1. Core Objective: “Invest, Then Buy My Chips”
This is Nvidia’s most direct investment logic. Nvidia injects capital into startups (like Poolside), who in turn use this money to purchase Nvidia’s expensive GB300 or next-generation GPUs. This not only locks in customers but also artificially creates demand, forming a “mutually beneficial” business ecosystem between Nvidia and its invested companies.
2. Strategic Objective: Building a “CUDA Ecosystem Moat”
Nvidia’s true moat is its CUDA software platform. By scattering money across all levels of the AI ecosystem (robotics, biopharmaceuticals, autonomous driving, AI programming), Nvidia ensures that these most promising future companies develop from day one based on the CUDA platform. This prevents competitors (like AMD, Intel) from shaking Nvidia’s position even if their hardware keeps up in terms of performance – they simply can’t disrupt Nvidia’s dominance in the software ecosystem.
3. Expansion Objective: Securing New Tracks for Chips
Nvidia needs to constantly find the next “AI wave” to support its $500 billion valuation. Its investment in Nokia (6G) is to push its AI chips into the massive telecommunications infrastructure market; its investment in Figure AI (robotics) is a bet on “embodied intelligence” becoming the next major consumer of computing power after cloud computing.
Summary: “Trickery” Under Monopoly
The unprecedented concentration in the US stock market reflects the productivity leap brought about by the AI revolution, but it also carries enormous risks of bubbles. The billion-dollar “closed loop” partnership between Nvidia and OpenAI is a microcosm of this high-stakes gamble.
Nvidia’s investment strategy is a meticulously planned “trickery”: It leverages its strong capital strength to not only become a “weapons supplier” in the AI era, but also to transform into a “banker” and “rule maker,” ensuring that all paths to the future are paved with Nvidia chips. This strategy is highly rational and efficient from a business perspective, but it also exposes it to significant antitrust pressure and potential financial risks.
For investors, understanding this game driven by AI, led by giants, and strengthened by capital closed loops is key to comprehending the current market.