Recently, Xiaomi’s third-quarter financial report was released, with little expectation beyond the usual. The US situation is unsettled, Hong Kong stocks have recently experienced liquidity stagnation, and the Hang Seng Technology Index has retreated significantly.

As a major participant in the food delivery war, Alibaba, which bears the highest e-commerce taxes, hasn’t generated much discussion online.

I don’t remember if I wrote any previous articles, when I bought Xiaomi, I didn’t really think about what supported Xiaomi’s market capitalization at that time – perhaps after watching too many TikTok-related videos?

Recently, the Hang Seng Technology Index has been falling, and electric vehicle stocks in Hong Kong are also declining. Xiaomi has multiple buffs stacked on top of each other, with negative news flying everywhere, and its stock price has naturally fallen significantly.

Recently, it’s also been changing the head of its public relations department – conspiracy theories: they’ve been trying to change it for a long time, but the stakes are too high, and there are still many KOLs involved; if they suddenly make some wild claims, it will be difficult to resolve the situation.

This article primarily analyzes the valuation logic of Xiaomi Group and the market and policy challenges faced by Meituan and Alibaba recently.

The original draft contained too much complex content, collecting information from various sources and edited based on AI.

Xiaomi: The Logic Behind the Surge in Valuation (Platform Premium)

• Core Argument: The capital market has given Xiaomi a surge in valuation, driven by its “platform-type company” and “ecosystem empowerment” premium – something that vertical manufacturers (like Xiaopeng, Zotye) lack.
• Valuation Anchor Differences:
  • Xiaomi: Anchored on the scarcity of “technology platforms” and “human-vehicle-home ecosystem.” The automotive business is viewed as a crucial step in ecological expansion, with risks dispersed across mobile and internet businesses.
  • Automotive Manufacturers (Xiaopeng/Zotye): Anchored on “vehicle sales” and “unit profitability,” with valuation curves directly linked to the automotive industry cycle.
• Ecosystem Empowerment Value: Xiaomi possesses a massive, highly engaged user base of over 100 million, with extremely high order conversion efficiency from cars, and low marketing costs. Its seamless “human-vehicle-home” synergy is viewed by the market as superior to the industry average differentiation.
• Market Expectations: The market is buying into Xiaomi’s potential to successfully enter the trillion-dollar new “track entry ticket” and “ecosystem synergy value” in the next decade, reshaping its overall valuation logic.

Meituan: Considering Exit

Initially, the phrase “capable of bringing together all things, deeply ingrained in people’s hearts” was seen as a strong moat. However, it now appears that this moat isn’t as deep as initially thought.

• Current Situation: When buying, little consideration was given; recently, the stock price has fallen, and a decision on whether to “cut losses” will be made after reviewing the third quarter financial results.

Alibaba (E-commerce Tax Policy Impact)

• Tax Policy Changes: China’s recent “e-commerce tax” is primarily focused on two areas:
  1. Cross-border E-commerce Retail Import Duty (“Haotai”): The preferential exemption for items below 50 RMB has been cancelled, leading to an approximate 11.9% price increase for haotai goods and driving industry compliance.
  2. Domestic E-commerce Tax Information Reporting Standards: Platforms are now required to report sales information from merchants, effectively preventing C2C individual sellers who previously hid income from continuing, marking the entry of the industry into a core reshaping phase focused on compliance.

1. Impact on Platforms:

• Taobao (C2C): May eliminate small businesses unwilling to comply in the short term, but in the long run, it will improve platform quality and consumer trust.

• Tianmao/Jingdong (B2C): Long-term benefit, as these large B2C platforms and merchants are already regular tax payers, and this new policy creates a fairer competitive environment for them.

• Reasons for Merchant Losses: Losses are concentrated in merchants originally relying on tax evasion to gain price advantages. For merchants eligible for small microenterprise preferential policies, the tax burden should be low or exempt after compliant reporting. Being eliminated is an inevitable step towards fair competition.