Monday saw no panic sell-off, but the entire week was marked by a persistent downtrend, like a dull knife slicing flesh – a slow, gradual decline over the course of seven days.

Disciplined Trading

Yesterday afternoon, two new Xiaomi positions were added, with the original plan to sell out at the end. However, at the end, there was a slight loss, leading to hesitation and reluctance to cut losses, so I decided to observe for another day. This morning, the stock price fell slightly by 1%, and when it dropped to 2% in the afternoon, I decisively exited. It turned out to be correct, and the stock continued to fall after that.

AI Analysis Follow-up Actions

A few days ago, I saw someone in the blogosphere using AI to analyze football betting and won second prize with a tax refund of around 900 RMB. Let’s try it with stocks too, based on my experience with large models previously, DeepSeek is most suitable, and the investment plans generated by the other models don’t look quite right.

Hong Kong Stock Investment Plan: Currently holding Xiaomi, approximately 100,000 RMB, down 15%, Meituan 70,000 RMB, down 20,000 RMB. Querying current stock prices and determining subsequent position control – I’m planning for long-term investment. The reason for buying Xiaomi is due to the Yu9 IPO, the three phases of factory ramp-up, and continued high sales, which should drive the price up. Meituan is after the end of the food delivery war stabilizes; Hong Kong Q3 earnings reports will be released next month – it’s more reasonable to operate after the reports are released. For my long-term investment of three to five years, please provide me with an investment plan.

Hong Kong Stock Investment Plan: Xiaomi and Meituan Position Analysis & Long-Term Strategy

Based on the information you provided (holding Xiaomi approximately HK$100,000 with a loss of 15% and Meituan approximately HK$70,000 with a loss of approximately 28.6%, investment horizon of 3 years), I have compiled the latest market data and analysis to develop a detailed investment plan for you. The following is core information extracted from comprehensive search results:

• Current Stock Prices (as of October 17, 2025):

  • Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK): HK$45.88 (down 3.82%, cumulative monthly decline exceeding 15%)
  • Meituan-W (03690.HK): HK$94.50 (down 4.30%, year-to-date cumulative decline of 37.71%)
  • Hong Kong Stock Market Environment: The Hang Seng Index fell by 2.48%, with technology stocks leading the decline, and market sentiment is short-term weak.

• Validation of Your Purchase Rationale:

  • Xiaomi: The listing of Yu9, the ramp-up of Phase III factory, and sales potential are reasonable long-term logic, but the stock price is suppressed in the short term due to the impact of the Chengdu SU7 accident (door safety controversy, intervention by regulatory authorities).
  • Meituan: Stabilization after the end of the food delivery war is a key long-term factor, but competition remains intense (competition from JD.com and Alibaba), with net profit falling 89% in the second quarter and Wang Xing’s “no matter the cost” statement exacerbating market concerns.

Position Control Recommendations: Short-Term Caution, Long-Term Focus on Fundamentals

Your current holdings are down approximately 18.8% (total holding of HKD 1.7 million, a loss of approximately HKD 374,000), but long-term investment requires avoiding emotional trading operations. Here’s a phased recommendation:

| Pre-Earnings Report (Short-Term: Now to Q3 Earnings Release) | Maintain current position, do not add to holdings. Closely monitor the progress of the SU7 accident investigation and Q3 vehicle delivery volume data. | Maintain current position, do not add to holdings. Focus on monitoring whether Q3 takeout UE (average order revenue) improves. | Potential price volatility before earnings report:
• Xiaomi will be dragged down by safety incidents and is unlikely to rebound in the short term.
• The competition between Meituan Takeout continues, and profitability recovery requires time. |

Positioning Control Recommendations: Short-Term Cautious, Long-Term Focus on Fundamentals

Position Control Recommendations: Short-Term Cautious, Long-Term Focus on Fundamentals

Positioning Strategy Recommendations: Short-Term Caution, Long-Term Focus on Fundamentals

Should you trade after the financial reports?

Yes, we recommend waiting for the third quarter financial reports (released in November) before making additional investment decisions. The reason is:

• The financial reports will validate your initial purchase logic: Xiaomi’s factory ramp-up sales volume and Meituan’s easing competition evidence.
• If the reports are below expectations, the stock price may fall, providing a better entry point for adding to your position; if they exceed expectations, it can confirm the right-side signal.
• Short-term market sentiment is driven by events (such as Xiaomi incidents and food delivery price wars), and financial reports will reduce uncertainty.

Long-Term Investment Plan (3-Year Perspective)

Based on the “Hold Quality Assets + Bottom Hunting” principle, your plan can be detailed as follows:

1. Xiaomi Group: Strong Defense and Offense, Focus on Automotive Business Turning Point
   • Core Opportunity: Vehicle business scale effect (target 350,000 units annual sales), AIoT ecosystem synergy. Financial health (Z-Score=4.19, low bankruptcy risk).
   • Risk Mitigation:
     • If the SU7 safety issues continue to ferment, the stock price may fall to the 40-42 HKD range, and a trigger point for adding positions can be set (adding 5% position when the price drops by 10%).
     • Long-term holding bottom line: Automotive quarterly delivery volume remains above 80,000 units.
   • Position Allocation: Recommend maintaining a 40%-50% total portfolio weighting (currently 59% is high, and can be adjusted after earnings reports).

• Meituan-W: Wait for Profitability Recovery, Focus on Core Business
  • Core Opportunity: Stable takeout market share (65%), takeaway business growth of 40%, valuation undervalued (SOTP target price of HKD 247).
  • Risk Mitigation:
    • If the takeout UE (average profit per order) turns positive, it is a signal for adding positions; if competition intensifies, the stock price may fall to HKD 80, and we can buy back shares in batches.
    • Long-term holding bottom line: Core local business operating profit rate recovers above 15%.
  • Position Allocation: Recommend maintaining a 30%-40% weighting (currently 41% is reasonable but needs to be wary of competition dragging it down).
• Diversified Investment Recommendations
  • Hong Kong tech stocks are under pressure recently, but long-term they still represent new quality production. Consider allocating 10%-20% of capital to high dividend assets (such as telecommunications operators) or Hong Kong tech ETFs to hedge the risk of a single stock.

Key Monitoring Metrics and Time Nodes

Key Monitoring Metrics and Time Nodes

Key Monitoring Metrics and Time Nodes

Key Monitoring Metrics and Milestones

Summary Recommendations

• Take Immediate Action: Maintain the status quo, and avoid blind hedging before the financial reports. Current stock prices have partially reflected negative news, but volatility may increase before the reports are released.
• Long-Term Confidence Support:
  • Xiaomi’s automotive ecosystem and smartphone premiumization are core logic; short-term incidents do not change its long-term technological iteration capabilities.
  • Meituan’s profitability will be significant once the food delivery war ends (referring to Alibaba’s observation of fire across the river).
• Risk Warnings: The overall Hong Kong stock market is highly sensitive to global liquidity; if the Federal Reserve delays interest rate cuts, it may suppress technology stocks’ valuations. Ensure investment funds are long-term idle funds.

This plan is based on public information and does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risks; decision-making requires caution. Recommend regular review (e.g., quarterly) to adjust strategies.

Summary Recommendations

It might not be appropriate to add more positions after the financial reports are released, as it could lead to significant price increases and then what?

Summary Recommendations

The question you raised is extremely critical, and it accurately highlights a classic dilemma faced by long-term investors: avoiding short-term risks (waiting for the earnings report) can conflict with pursuing the best cost (fearing missing out). Your concern that “adding to your position after the earnings report if the stock price rises sharply will cause you to miss out” is very reasonable. The market often has a forward-looking nature, and if the earnings report is truly better than expected, the stock price is likely to react quickly in the short term. However, given your current holdings of these two stocks, “waiting for the earnings report” remains the optimal strategy. Below, I will explain the reasons in detail and provide a step-by-step addition strategy that balances “risk” and “opportunity.”

Why is “Waiting for the Earnings Report” Still a More Reasonable Choice in the Current Situation?

The core reason lies in: The uncertainty surrounding the two stocks you hold stems primarily from fundamental contradictions within their businesses, and the earnings report is key to validating these contradictions. There hasn’t been a significant “catalyst” (a substantial price increase) yet.

1. For Xiaomi: The core contradiction is “an automotive business confidence crisis.”

   • Current Situation: The negative impact of the SU7 safety incident is still unfolding, leading to market skepticism regarding Xiaomi Auto’s quality, reputation, and future sales expectations. This is the primary factor suppressing the stock price.
   • The Validation Role of the Earnings Report: The third quarter earnings report will provide crucial vehicle delivery data. If deliveries remain strong, it can effectively dispel market concerns and drive a sustainable increase in the stock price. Until then, any rally would likely be fragile.
   • Risk vs. Opportunity Comparison:
     • Risk of Waiting (Missing Out): Given the prevailing negative sentiment, the probability of the stock experiencing a significant, sustained rise before the earnings report is relatively low.
     • Risk of Blindly Jumping In (Getting Trapped): If the report shows poor vehicle sales, the price could continue to decline, leaving you with the greater risk of “buying back in at half price.”

2. For Meituan: The core contradiction is “when will profitability be restored?”

   • Current Situation: The market worries that intense competition will continue to erode profits from its core takeaway business (UE).
   • The Validation Role of the Earnings Report: The core local business operating profit and adjusted net profit in the report are the only objective standards for determining whether the “takeaway war” has truly eased. Only improved data can prove that Wang Xiting’s “no matter the cost” phase is over.
   • Risk vs. Opportunity Comparison:
     • Risk of Waiting (Missing Out): Again, there’s a lack of a solid foundation for a significant rebound before the profitability inflection point is confirmed.
     • Risk of Blindly Jumping In (Getting Trapped): If the report shows that competition intensifies and profits continue to decline, concerns about the “valuation trap” will intensify, and the price could take another step down.

Conclusion: For long-term investment, buying “correct” is more important than buying “cheap.” The earnings report provides the key evidence for determining “correctness.” To avoid a minor “missed opportunity” and risk a “deep trap,” from a risk-reward ratio perspective, it’s not worthwhile.

Your Specific Action Plan: Balancing “Waiting” and “Missing Out” Anxiety

You don’t need to make extreme choices between “holding everything” and “going all in.” A smarter strategy is: “Core Holding Observation, Pyramidal Accumulation.”

Step 1: Immediately Establish “Observation Position” and “Operational Discipline” (Now)

• Maintain your existing position as your core holding, ensuring you don’t completely detach from the market.
• Set a trigger for adding to your position. For example:
  • Xiaomi: The stock price breaks out with volume through a key technical level (e.g., HK$50), or there is a clear positive investigation result regarding the SU7 accident.
  • Meituan: News emerges of a competitor exiting the price war, or the stock price breaks through the HK$100 integer barrier with volume.
• The benefit of doing this: If there’s a significant catalyst driving the stock price up before the earnings report, you can seize the opportunity according to your established discipline and avoid completely missing out.

Step 2: Small Batch Investing Before Earnings (Optional, Suitable for Investors Seeking Smoother Costs)

• If you’re very concerned about missing out, divide the funds earmarked for adding to your position into 10-20 portions.
• Before the earnings release, if the stock continues to decline in the shadows, invest one portion weekly or bi-weekly. This way, costs can be gradually diluted, but each investment amount is small, and even if the earnings report is negative, the loss can be controlled.

Step 3: “Certainty” Accumulation After Earnings (Core Operation)

• This is the main accumulation phase of your plan. Based on the earnings results, respond in three ways:
  • Scenario A (Exceeds Expectations): The earnings data is strong and validates your investment logic. At this time, you should aggressively add to your position. Even if the stock price has already risen, the fundamental turning point has been confirmed, and from a long-term perspective, the current price level is still the base of the mountain. You can adopt a “don’t chase high while chasing gains” strategy, buying in batches.
  • Scenario B (Meets Expectations): The earnings report is neutral, with no surprises or shocks. Maintain your existing position or only modestly add to it, waiting for the next quarter’s signal.
  • Scenario C (Falls Short of Expectations): The earnings report confirms market concerns. You should stop adding to your position and reassess whether the long-term logic has been disrupted. The stock price may fall, but this also provides you with a lower, safer entry point for accumulating.

Summary: Optimized Long-Term Investment Plan

Summary: Optimized Long-Term Investment Plan

Summary: Your Long-Term Investment Plan Optimized

Summary: Your Optimized Long-Term Investment Plan

Please remember: In long-term investing, patience is a powerful competitive advantage. The market will always give you opportunities; if you miss one, there will be another. But once your principal is lost, it’s difficult to recover. Waiting for the certainty of financial reports is one of the most effective ways to protect your capital and increase your chances of success.

We hope this detailed plan answers your questions and helps you make more confident decisions.